UncleLar has looked at the performance of teams that have hired a new coach in the last two years.
His information, originally posted on the forum, showed that only three of the 45 coaches who took over in 2000-2001 have had two winning seasons. Only nine coaches took their teams from a losing season to a winning season in two years.
These are from UncleLar posts on the forum March 15, 2003:
I looked at the record one and two years out using the list of coaching changes following the 2000-01 season.
That year there were 45 coaching changes. Again, more new coaches had a positive impact than a negative (25 vs 20) in year one.
18 coaches had a non-losing record one year out.
22 coaches had a non-losing record two years out.
11 coaches had non-losing records both years.
Only four coaches took a team from a losing record to a winning record in one year.
Only nine coaches took a team from a losing record to a winning record in two years.
Only three coaches took a team from a losing record to two consecutive winning records (Rick Pitino, Bob Knight, and Kevin Bromley).
People who expect immediate winning from a new coach at PSU need to, in the immortal words of Joe Paterno, reset their expectations.
The hypothesis that I wanted to test was that a new coach would give their new team an immediate boost that would show up in year one (in both years that I looked at, that turned out to be true – 25 vs 20 in this test group, 25 vs 17 in the other), which would be followed by a drop in year two. The results bore me out. Of the 25 coaches that showed a positive impact in year one, 14 fell back in the second year. Only 11 managed to sustain their year one results in year two.
There were four categories that a coach could fall into. Positive results from one year to the next in both years, negative in both, postive year one but negative year two, and negative year one but positive year two.
Here’s how the 45 coaches break out.
Plus/plus (11)
Plus/minus (14)
Minus/plus (10)
Minus/minus (10)
I don’t know if it’s statistically significant but my theory seems to hold.
So, if we hire a new coach and follow the trend, we should get better next year (though not reaching .500) but follow that with a slide backward in year two.
Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s what the fans’ expectations are and my bet is that if this were to happen the bulletin boards would be rampant with “we made the wrong choice” posts.
Here’s the details:
SCHOOL WHO’S OUT (W/L) WHO’S IN (Yr 1 W/L) (Yr2 W/L) +/- +/-
Positive/Positive (11)
Northern Illinois B. Hammel (4-22) Rob Judson (12-16) (17-13) +14 +8
Louisville Denny Crum (12-19) Rick Pitino (18-12) (22-6) +13 +10
St. Mary’s (Calif.) David Bollwinkel (1-25) Randy Bennett (8-20) (14-15) +12 +11
Texas Southern Robert Moreland (7-22) Byron Smith (11-17) (16-12) +9 +10
UNLV Bill Bayno (14-13) Charlie Spoonhour (20-10) (20-9) +9 +1
Florida A&M; Mickey Clayton (6-22) Mike Gillespie (9-19) (17-11) +6 +16
Xavier Skip Prosser (21-7) Thad Matta (25-5) (25-4) +6 +1
Rhode Island Jerry DeGregorio (7-22) Jim Baron (8-20) (18-11) +3 +19
Old Dominion Jeff Capel (12-17) Blaine Taylor (13-16) (12-15) +2 0
Michigan Brian Ellerbe (9-18) Tommy Amaker (10-18) (17-12) +1 +13
Wis.-Milwaukee Bo Ryan (13-13) Bruce Pearl (13-13) (23-7) 0 +16
—————————————————————————–
Positive/Negative (14)
Texas Tech James Dickey (9-19) Bob Knight (23-8) (17-11) +25 -9
North Texas Vic Trilli (2-24) Johnny Jones (13-14) (5-21) +21 – 15
Northern Iowa Sam Weaver (6-24) Greg McDermott (14-15) (10-17) +17 -6
Idaho David Farrar (4-21) Leonard Perry (8-9) (12-15) +16 -2
Cal Poly-SLO Jeff Schneider (5-18) Kevin Bromley (14-12) (14-13) +15 -1
Rutgers Kevin Bannon (11-16) Gary Waters (18-12) (12-16) +11 -2
Robert Morris Danny Nee (7-22) Mark Schmidt (12-18) (9-17) +9 -2
Tulsa Buzz Peterson (21-11) John Phillips (25-6) (20-9) +9 -8
Butler Thad Matta (21-7) Todd Lickliter (25-5) (24-5) +6 -1
La Salle William “Speedy” Morris (12-17) Billy Hahn (15-17) (12-17) +3 -3
Duquesne Darelle Porter (9-21) Danny Nee (9-19) (9-21) +2 -2
South Carolina Eddie Fogler (15-14) Dave Odom (17-14) (12-16) +2 -7
George Washington Tom Penders (14-18) Karl Hobbs (12-16) (12-17) 0 -1
Pepperdine Jan van Breda Kolff (21-8) Paul Westphal (21-8) (15-13) 0 -11
————————————————————————————
Negative/Positive (10)
Wake Forest Dave Odom (19-10) Skip Prosser (20-12) (23-4) -1 +11
Wisconsin Dick Bennett (18-10) Bo Ryan (17-12) (22-6) -3 +11
Denver Martin Fletcher (8-18) Terry Carroll (7-20) (17-15) -3 +15
Drexel Steve (15-12) Seymour Bruiser Flint (14-15) (18-11) -4 +8
Morgan State (6-23) Chris Fuller Butch Beard (3-25) (7-22) -5 +7
Northeastern Rudy Keeling (10-19) Ron Everhart (7-21) (14-15) -5 +13
Portland Rob Chavez (8-17) Michael Holton (6-24) (10-17) -9 +11
Seton Hall Tommy Amaker (16-14) Louis Orr (11-18) (17-12) -9 +12
Siena Louis Orr (19-11) Rob Lanier (16-18) (19-10) -10 +11
Tennessee Jerry Green (22-10) Buzz Peterson (14-16) (17-10) -14 +9
———————————————————————————
Negative/Negative (10)
McNeese State Ron Everhart (21-8) Tic Price (20-8) (13-14) -1 -13
Ohio Larry Hunter (18-11) Tim O’Shea (17-11) (14-15) -1 -7
Villanova Steve Lappas (18-12) Jay Wright (17-12) (15-15) -1 -5
Towson Mike Jaskulski (12-17) Michael Hunt (11-18) (4-24) -2 -13
St. Bonaventure Jim Baron (18-11) Jan van Breda Kolff (17-12) (13-14) -2 -6
Massachusetts James “Bruiser” Flint (15-15) Steve Lappas (13-16) (10-18) -3 -3
New Orleans Joey Stiebing (15-12) Monte Towe (14-14) (13-14) -3 -1
Southern Tommy Green (11-16) Ben Jobe (7-19) (7-20) -7 -1
Stetson Murray Arnold (15-12) Derek Waugh (9-16) (6-20) -10 -7
Hofstra Jay Wright (26-4) Tom Pecora (12-20) (8-21) -30 -5
Note: I choose to view a “no change” result from one year to the next as a positive one rather than a negative. Continuing on the positive theme, I considered a .500 season as a winning one rather than a losing one.
**************
I looked at the 42 coaching changes last year. What I did was calculate the change in their +/- rate, i.e. wins minus losses (Division I wins only).
25 coaches improved, 17 slipped.
Just 13 coaches had a winning record.
Only 5 of those took them from a losing record to a winning record.
Here’s the complete list, ranked from greatest positive change to biggest negative. Props to Bill Taylor at Lehigh for one unbelievable season, taking the Moutain Hawks from 4-23 to 14-12.
Some familiar names from Tim’s list in the top ten – John Pelphrey, John Beilein, and Jeff Lebo.
School Former Coach (record) New Coach (record) Change
1. Lehigh Sal Mentesana (4-23) Bill Taylor (14-12) +21
2. Liberty Mel Hankinson (3-24) Randy Dunton (14-15) +20
3. Prairie View A&M; Elwood Plummer (9-19) Jerry Francis (17-11) +16
4. DePaul Pat Kennedy (9-19) Dave Leitao (16-12) +14
5. South Alabama Bob Weltlich (5-20) John Pelphrey (12-14) +13
6. West Virginia Gale Catlett (7-20) John Beilein (14-15) +12
7T. UAB Murry Bartow (13-17) Mike Anderson (17-11) +10
7T Evansville Jim Crews (7-21) Steve Merfeld (12-16) +10
7T. Chattanooga Henry Dickerson (14-14) Jeff Lebo (19-9) +10
10T. Fresno State Jerry Tarkanian (18-14) Ray Lopes (20-8) +8
10T. Norfolk State Wil Jones (10-19) Dwight Freeman (14-15) +8
12. LIU Ray Martin (5-22) Jim Ferry (9-19) +7
13T. Wofford Richard Johnson (7-18) Mike Young (10-15) +6
13T. Florida State Steve Robinson (11-17) Leonard Hamilton (14-14) +6
15T. College of Charleston (20-8) John Kresse Tom Herrion (22-7) +5
15T. Saint Louis Lorenzo Romar (15-16) Brad Sodderberg (16-12) +5
15T. UNC-Wilmington Jerry Wainwright (22-9) Brad Brownell (24-6) +5
18T. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Harold Blevins (2-26) Van Holt* (4-24) +4
18T. Bradley Jim Molinari (9-20) Jim Les (11-18) +4
18T. Oregon State Ritchie McKay (9-17) Jay John (12-15) +4
21. Middle Tennessee Randy Wiel ( 12-15) Kermit Davis Jr. (14-14) +3
22. UW-Green Bay Mike Heideman (9-21) Tod Kowalczyk (9-19) +2
23T. Washington Bob Bender (10-18) Lorenzo Romar (10-17) +1
23T. Boise State Rod Jensen (12-17) Greg Graham (12-16) +1
23T. Nicholls State Rickey Broussard (1-25) Ricky Blanton (2-25) +1
——————————————————————————–
26. VCU Mack McCarthy (20-11) Jeff Capel (18-10) -1
27. Albany Scott Beeten (8-20) Will Brown (7-21) -2
28T. Richmond John Beilen (19-13) Jerry Wainwright (15-13) -4
28T. Montana Don Holst (14-14) Pat Kennedy (12-16) -4
30. San Jose State Steve Barnes (9-20) Phil Johnson (5-21) -5
31. Radford Ron Bradley (14-16) Byron Samuels (10-20) -6
32. Valparaiso Homer Drew (24-7) Scott Drew (20-10) -7
33T. Arkansas Nolan Richardson (14-15) Stan Heath (9-19) -8
33T. Bethune-Cookman Horace Broadnax (11-17) Clifford Reed (8-22) -8
35. TCU Billy Tubbs (14-15) Neil Dougherty (9-19) -9
36T. Kent State Stan Heath (26-5) Jim Christian (19-8) -10
36T. Tennessee Tech Jeff Lebo (21-6) Mike Sutton (17-12) -10
38. Hampton Steve Merfeld (25-6) Bobby Collins* (18-10) -11
39T. Long Beach State Wayne Morgan (11-17) Larry Reynolds (4-22) -12
39T. Portland State Joel Sobotka (11-16) Heath Schroyer (4-21) -12
41. Army Pat Harris (10-16) Jim Crews (3-22) -13
42. New Mexico Fran Fraschilla (16-13) Ritchie McKay (9-18) -18