Money quote:
“There always are those upsets in the cottage-conference tourneys. But it will take several this March just to equal the normal number of mid-major at-large bids.
“For fans of bubble-sitters such as PSU (63 RPI) and Temple (45), the conferences where upsets could really hurt their chances are the ones where the clear leaders are likely to survive any carnage:
“# Conference USA, where Memphis (7) is a heavyweight in what is now a middleweight league. Weak-resumed UAB (42) could have pulled itself into legitimate at-large territory Thursday night with an upset of the Tigers in Birmingham, but lost by 11. Any upset of Memphis in the C-USA tournament almost certainly snatches a bid from the at-large pool.
“# The West Coast Conference, where Gonzaga (38) is boss and has been in and out of the Top 25 all year. St. Mary’s (52) looked for most of the season like a probable second bid until point guard Patrick Mills injured his wrist. The Gaels are trying hard to survive until his return and got a jolt of juice with a Bracket Busters defeat of WAC champion Utah State (25).
“# The Horizon League, where Butler (20) is czar and any tourney upset of the Bulldogs is a certain bid-stealer.
“# The Atlantic 10, where Xavier (12) is king, Dayton (34) is a likely second bid and anyone else, including Temple (45) and Rhode Island (58), is an add-on. Atlantic City will draw anxious sideways glances from the Nittany Lions while they fight in Indianapolis because they lost to both the Owls and Rams, neither on a hostile floor.
“# The Mountain West, where Utah (9) is a lock, Brigham Young (22) is close and UNLV (48) is bubbly. Watch for the Rebels.
“All other leagues lean toward one bid…”