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Forum post: Rebuilding numbers

These are from UncleLar posts on the forum March 15, 2003:

I looked at the record one and two years out using the list of coaching changes following the 2000-01 season.

That year there were 45 coaching changes. Again, more new coaches had a positive impact than a negative (25 vs 20) in year one.

18 coaches had a non-losing record one year out.
22 coaches had a non-losing record two years out.
11 coaches had non-losing records both years.

Only four coaches took a team from a losing record to a winning record in one year.

Only nine coaches took a team from a losing record to a winning record in two years.

Only three coaches took a team from a losing record to two consecutive winning records (Rick Pitino, Bob Knight, and Kevin Bromley).

People who expect immediate winning from a new coach at PSU need to, in the immortal words of Joe Paterno, reset their expectations.

The hypothesis that I wanted to test was that a new coach would give their new team an immediate boost that would show up in year one (in both years that I looked at, that turned out to be true – 25 vs 20 in this test group, 25 vs 17 in the other), which would be followed by a drop in year two. The results bore me out. Of the 25 coaches that showed a positive impact in year one, 14 fell back in the second year. Only 11 managed to sustain their year one results in year two.

There were four categories that a coach could fall into. Positive results from one year to the next in both years, negative in both, postive year one but negative year two, and negative year one but positive year two.

Here’s how the 45 coaches break out.

Plus/plus (11)
Plus/minus (14)
Minus/plus (10)
Minus/minus (10)

I don’t know if it’s statistically significant but my theory seems to hold.

So, if we hire a new coach and follow the trend, we should get better next year (though not reaching .500) but follow that with a slide backward in year two.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s what the fans’ expectations are and my bet is that if this were to happen the bulletin boards would be rampant with “we made the wrong choice” posts.

Here’s the details:

SCHOOL WHO’S OUT (W/L) WHO’S IN (Yr 1 W/L) (Yr2 W/L) +/- +/-
Positive/Positive (11)

Northern Illinois B. Hammel (4-22) Rob Judson (12-16) (17-13) +14 +8
Louisville Denny Crum (12-19) Rick Pitino (18-12) (22-6) +13 +10
St. Mary’s (Calif.) David Bollwinkel (1-25) Randy Bennett (8-20) (14-15) +12 +11
Texas Southern Robert Moreland (7-22) Byron Smith (11-17) (16-12) +9 +10
UNLV Bill Bayno (14-13) Charlie Spoonhour (20-10) (20-9) +9 +1
Florida A&M; Mickey Clayton (6-22) Mike Gillespie (9-19) (17-11) +6 +16
Xavier Skip Prosser (21-7) Thad Matta (25-5) (25-4) +6 +1
Rhode Island Jerry DeGregorio (7-22) Jim Baron (8-20) (18-11) +3 +19
Old Dominion Jeff Capel (12-17) Blaine Taylor (13-16) (12-15) +2 0
Michigan Brian Ellerbe (9-18) Tommy Amaker (10-18) (17-12) +1 +13
Wis.-Milwaukee Bo Ryan (13-13) Bruce Pearl (13-13) (23-7) 0 +16
—————————————————————————–

Positive/Negative (14)

Texas Tech James Dickey (9-19) Bob Knight (23-8) (17-11) +25 -9
North Texas Vic Trilli (2-24) Johnny Jones (13-14) (5-21) +21 – 15
Northern Iowa Sam Weaver (6-24) Greg McDermott (14-15) (10-17) +17 -6
Idaho David Farrar (4-21) Leonard Perry (8-9) (12-15) +16 -2
Cal Poly-SLO Jeff Schneider (5-18) Kevin Bromley (14-12) (14-13) +15 -1
Rutgers Kevin Bannon (11-16) Gary Waters (18-12) (12-16) +11 -2
Robert Morris Danny Nee (7-22) Mark Schmidt (12-18) (9-17) +9 -2
Tulsa Buzz Peterson (21-11) John Phillips (25-6) (20-9) +9 -8
Butler Thad Matta (21-7) Todd Lickliter (25-5) (24-5) +6 -1
La Salle William “Speedy” Morris (12-17) Billy Hahn (15-17) (12-17) +3 -3
Duquesne Darelle Porter (9-21) Danny Nee (9-19) (9-21) +2 -2
South Carolina Eddie Fogler (15-14) Dave Odom (17-14) (12-16) +2 -7
George Washington Tom Penders (14-18) Karl Hobbs (12-16) (12-17) 0 -1
Pepperdine Jan van Breda Kolff (21-8) Paul Westphal (21-8) (15-13) 0 -11
————————————————————————————

Negative/Positive (10)
Wake Forest Dave Odom (19-10) Skip Prosser (20-12) (23-4) -1 +11
Wisconsin Dick Bennett (18-10) Bo Ryan (17-12) (22-6) -3 +11
Denver Martin Fletcher (8-18) Terry Carroll (7-20) (17-15) -3 +15
Drexel Steve (15-12) Seymour Bruiser Flint (14-15) (18-11) -4 +8
Morgan State (6-23) Chris Fuller Butch Beard (3-25) (7-22) -5 +7
Northeastern Rudy Keeling (10-19) Ron Everhart (7-21) (14-15) -5 +13
Portland Rob Chavez (8-17) Michael Holton (6-24) (10-17) -9 +11
Seton Hall Tommy Amaker (16-14) Louis Orr (11-18) (17-12) -9 +12
Siena Louis Orr (19-11) Rob Lanier (16-18) (19-10) -10 +11
Tennessee Jerry Green (22-10) Buzz Peterson (14-16) (17-10) -14 +9
———————————————————————————

Negative/Negative (10)
McNeese State Ron Everhart (21-8) Tic Price (20-8) (13-14) -1 -13
Ohio Larry Hunter (18-11) Tim O’Shea (17-11) (14-15) -1 -7
Villanova Steve Lappas (18-12) Jay Wright (17-12) (15-15) -1 -5
Towson Mike Jaskulski (12-17) Michael Hunt (11-18) (4-24) -2 -13
St. Bonaventure Jim Baron (18-11) Jan van Breda Kolff (17-12) (13-14) -2 -6
Massachusetts James “Bruiser” Flint (15-15) Steve Lappas (13-16) (10-18) -3 -3
New Orleans Joey Stiebing (15-12) Monte Towe (14-14) (13-14) -3 -1
Southern Tommy Green (11-16) Ben Jobe (7-19) (7-20) -7 -1
Stetson Murray Arnold (15-12) Derek Waugh (9-16) (6-20) -10 -7
Hofstra Jay Wright (26-4) Tom Pecora (12-20) (8-21) -30 -5

Note: I choose to view a “no change” result from one year to the next as a positive one rather than a negative. Continuing on the positive theme, I considered a .500 season as a winning one rather than a losing one.

**************

I looked at the 42 coaching changes last year. What I did was calculate the change in their +/- rate, i.e. wins minus losses (Division I wins only).

25 coaches improved, 17 slipped.
Just 13 coaches had a winning record.
Only 5 of those took them from a losing record to a winning record.

Here’s the complete list, ranked from greatest positive change to biggest negative. Props to Bill Taylor at Lehigh for one unbelievable season, taking the Moutain Hawks from 4-23 to 14-12.

Some familiar names from Tim’s list in the top ten – John Pelphrey, John Beilein, and Jeff Lebo.

School Former Coach (record) New Coach (record) Change
1. Lehigh Sal Mentesana (4-23) Bill Taylor (14-12) +21
2. Liberty Mel Hankinson (3-24) Randy Dunton (14-15) +20
3. Prairie View A&M; Elwood Plummer (9-19) Jerry Francis (17-11) +16
4. DePaul Pat Kennedy (9-19) Dave Leitao (16-12) +14
5. South Alabama Bob Weltlich (5-20) John Pelphrey (12-14) +13
6. West Virginia Gale Catlett (7-20) John Beilein (14-15) +12
7T. UAB Murry Bartow (13-17) Mike Anderson (17-11) +10
7T Evansville Jim Crews (7-21) Steve Merfeld (12-16) +10
7T. Chattanooga Henry Dickerson (14-14) Jeff Lebo (19-9) +10
10T. Fresno State Jerry Tarkanian (18-14) Ray Lopes (20-8) +8
10T. Norfolk State Wil Jones (10-19) Dwight Freeman (14-15) +8
12. LIU Ray Martin (5-22) Jim Ferry (9-19) +7
13T. Wofford Richard Johnson (7-18) Mike Young (10-15) +6
13T. Florida State Steve Robinson (11-17) Leonard Hamilton (14-14) +6
15T. College of Charleston (20-8) John Kresse Tom Herrion (22-7) +5
15T. Saint Louis Lorenzo Romar (15-16) Brad Sodderberg (16-12) +5
15T. UNC-Wilmington Jerry Wainwright (22-9) Brad Brownell (24-6) +5
18T. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Harold Blevins (2-26) Van Holt* (4-24) +4
18T. Bradley Jim Molinari (9-20) J
im Les (11-18) +4
18T. Oregon State Ritchie McKay (9-17) Jay John (12-15) +4
21. Middle Tennessee Randy Wiel ( 12-15) Kermit Davis Jr. (14-14) +3
22. UW-Green Bay Mike Heideman (9-21) Tod Kowalczyk (9-19) +2
23T. Washington Bob Bender (10-18) Lorenzo Romar (10-17) +1
23T. Boise State Rod Jensen (12-17) Greg Graham (12-16) +1
23T. Nicholls State Rickey Broussard (1-25) Ricky Blanton (2-25) +1
——————————————————————————–

26. VCU Mack McCarthy (20-11) Jeff Capel (18-10) -1
27. Albany Scott Beeten (8-20) Will Brown (7-21) -2
28T. Richmond John Beilen (19-13) Jerry Wainwright (15-13) -4
28T. Montana Don Holst (14-14) Pat Kennedy (12-16) -4
30. San Jose State Steve Barnes (9-20) Phil Johnson (5-21) -5
31. Radford Ron Bradley (14-16) Byron Samuels (10-20) -6
32. Valparaiso Homer Drew (24-7) Scott Drew (20-10) -7
33T. Arkansas Nolan Richardson (14-15) Stan Heath (9-19) -8
33T. Bethune-Cookman Horace Broadnax (11-17) Clifford Reed (8-22) -8
35. TCU Billy Tubbs (14-15) Neil Dougherty (9-19) -9
36T. Kent State Stan Heath (26-5) Jim Christian (19-8) -10
36T. Tennessee Tech Jeff Lebo (21-6) Mike Sutton (17-12) -10
38. Hampton Steve Merfeld (25-6) Bobby Collins* (18-10) -11
39T. Long Beach State Wayne Morgan (11-17) Larry Reynolds (4-22) -12
39T. Portland State Joel Sobotka (11-16) Heath Schroyer (4-21) -12
41. Army Pat Harris (10-16) Jim Crews (3-22) -13
42. New Mexico Fran Fraschilla (16-13) Ritchie McKay (9-18) -18

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Collegian: Letter to the Editor – Men’s basketball coach asks for fans’ support

Letter to the Editor – Men’s basketball coach asks for fans’ support:

“Letter to the Editor

“Men’s basketball coach asks for fans’ support

“This evening, the Penn State men’s basketball team will play our final regular season home game at the Bryce Jordan Center. Whether you plan to attend or not, I wanted to make sure our team thanked you for your support during a challenging, difficult season. Our team wants to win as badly as you want to come and cheer a winner.

“We’ll be busting our tails tonight against Minnesota, in next week’s Big Ten Tournament and throughout the off-season to continue the development of a winner. We absolutely, positively will not give up on our dreams of building the Penn State program. You will play a large role in our success. Your influence on our games continued to improve this season, and we are optimistic about what we can accomplish together going forward. Whether later tonight or at next season’s home opener, I look forward to the next time we’re together at the BJC.

Ed DeChellis

men’s basketball head coach”

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Collegian: Seniors reflect on careers, offer guidance to rookies

What can a Penn State athlete take away from four years of unsuccessful results at the collegiate level?

“We’re going to graduate,” Penn State men’s basketball senior Jamaal Tate said, referring to himself and fellow seniors Jason McDougald an Kevin Fellows. “We’re doing something different. In a time when graduation rates are down, we are getting out of here with our degrees. We’re just proud to be graduating.” …

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Collegian: Difficult season coming to end

For the few remaining fans of the Penn State men’s basketball team in Happy Valley, have no fear: you will soon be put out of your misery.

Yet another painful and forgettable season is nearing its end as the Nittany Lions (7-20, 1-13 Big Ten) have their final home contest of the season at 8 tonight when the Minnesota Golden Gophers (19-9, 9-6) come to the Bryce Jordan Center.

The Lions are on pace to have one of their worst records in school history. If Penn State loses its final three contests of the year (the Lions close out their season at No. 14 Michigan State on Saturday and will play at least one contest in the Big Ten tournament), the Lions will set a single-season school record with 23 losses. Penn State finished with 22 losses in 1983-84 when it had a record of 5-22 overall.

But after four blowout defeats in a row, Penn State coach Ed DeChellis said his team isn’t ready to give up just yet. …

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CDT: DeChellis’ quest to solve PSU’s ills continues

“He knows.

“He knows that at the end of the day, he is accountable for his team’s continuing struggles. That even the most loyal fans are looking for some sort of answers.

“And Ed DeChellis knows that the few answers he has provided have varied about as much as the temperature in Greenland.

“‘I come down here sometimes and I sound like a broken record,’ the Penn State men’s basketball coach said during Monday’s press conference. ‘I say the same things. I leave there and I try to think of things that are constructive that I can say differently … and every week I say the same things, because it’s the same things that continue to haunt us over and over again.’…”

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Collegian: DeChellis questioning self as frustrating losses pile up

DeChellis questioning self as frustrating losses pile up:

“Prior to Saturday, he’d done a nice job of tucking away the emotions and shedding as much light as possible on a team that has snagged just one conference win.

“But it was only a matter of time — or losses — until the frustration, disappointment and impatience started to seep through the usually upbeat and well-composed Ed DeChellis.

“And for the Penn State men’s basketball coach, the most recent loss might have been his breaking point. After his team turned in another superbly subpar performance in a 78-56 beating from Iowa, DeChellis addressed the media just as he did after the 19 previous losses. But this postgame press conference was different. Even DeChellis was questioning himself and his underachieving team.

” ‘You can only preach and preach and preach about what we have to win games … and sometimes guys have to step up and be able to do it,’ DeChellis said. ‘We haven’t gotten that done, and that’s my responsibility.’

“It’s obvious Penn State’s 7-20 season has taken its toll on DeChellis. On Saturday, his expressions suggested that he’s drained from trying to figure out how his Nittany Lions have gotten themselves into this mess. It seems he’s even more frustrated by trying to figure out if and how the Lions can wiggle their way out of this slump before the season’s end. …”

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Dave Jones: Good news for PSU: Freshman class remains on board

PennLive.com: Search:

“If you’re a Penn State men’s basket ball fan — one of the few and, at this point, not so proud — you’ve probably been searching for good news. Any smidgen of good news.

“Well, I have some:

“Geary Claxton told me Saturday after another abysmal PSU loss he’s definitely coming back for his sophomore season and that he’s in this thing for the long haul.

“Considering the wreckage of this Penn State season and the fact that Claxton is the team’s only Big Ten-caliber athlete, that’s not just good news. It’s vital news for PSU coach Ed DeChellis. As in, the patient is still critical but vital signs are stable.

“I caught the 6-5 freshman forward soon after the Lions’ listless 22-point loss to struggling Iowa Saturday afternoon and asked, ‘Is there any possibility at all you would transfer from Penn State?’

“Said Claxton: ‘No. None. Coach DeChellis and the staff promised me the chance to play right away here and no one else did that.

“‘It’s rough right now. But I’m sticking this out. This is the place for me.’

“That sentiment was echoed yesterday by the three other freshmen who must be a steel core if DeChellis is able to build anything of a program headed for its fourth straight last-place Big Ten finish. …”

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Collegian: Lions fall flat on Senior Day

Lions fall flat on Senior Day:

“Things started out pretty well for Penn State’s Jason McDougald on Senior Day.

“With family and friends in attendance at his next-to-last home college basketball game, the seldom-used McDougald scored the game’s opening points against the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday afternoon on a pretty two-handed slam.

“He would get the chance for another dunk later in the contest — but the situation had changed to something he and fellow seniors Kevin Fellows and Jamaal Tate have been all too familiar with during their stay in Happy Valley.

“This time, McDougald’s dunk cut Iowa’s lead to just 22 points.

“Can you say deja vu?

“In yet another one of their lackluster efforts this season, the Nittany Lions (7-20, 1-13 Big Ten) were easily defeated by Iowa (17-10, 5-9), 78-56. Penn State coach Ed DeChellis went so far as to apologize to the seniors afterward, embarrassed by his team’s performance.

“‘Obviously, our start was absolutely horrendous; our first half was horrendous,’ DeChellis said. ‘I don’t have an answer for that; they didn’t have an answer for that. I apologize to the seniors because that’s not the way they should have senior night. Obviously we didn’t do a really good job of preparing them — I didn’t do a very good job of preparing them.’ …”