{"id":376107,"date":"2018-04-10T13:15:09","date_gmt":"2018-04-10T17:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pennstatehoops.com\/?p=376107"},"modified":"2018-04-29T16:20:42","modified_gmt":"2018-04-29T20:20:42","slug":"post-season-the-2018-19-roster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pennstatehoops.com\/pennstatehoops-com-has-ceased-operations\/post-season-the-2018-19-roster\/","title":{"rendered":"Post-season: The 2018-19 Roster"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Senior Shep Garner, Penn State’s all-time three-point leader, and sophomore Tony Carr, Penn State’s leading offensive player, are leaving Penn State — hopefully for successful professional careers.<\/p>\n

For a program that hopes it has achieved a higher, sustainable level of play, these are significant departures.<\/p>\n

Using Bart Torvik’s tempo-free numbers at T-rank<\/a>, Shep and Tony accounted for 39% of Penn State’s offense in 2018-19:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nMin% * ORTG * USAGE<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0% of PSU Offense<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tony Carr<\/strong><\/td>\n27.5<\/td>\n25.91%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shep Garner<\/strong><\/td>\n14.1<\/td>\n13.27%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lamar Stevens<\/strong><\/td>\n21.2<\/td>\n19.99%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Watkins<\/strong><\/td>\n11.6<\/td>\n10.90%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Josh Reaves<\/strong><\/td>\n17.6<\/td>\n16.56%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jamari Wheeler<\/strong><\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n4.05%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nazeer Bostick<\/strong><\/td>\n6.3<\/td>\n5.94%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Harrar<\/strong><\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n1.83%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Satchel Pierce<\/strong><\/td>\n1.6<\/td>\n1.55%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n106.2<\/td>\n100.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Losing two high-minutes, high-usage, highly effective guards would seem to put a lot of pressure on 2017-18 reserves Naz Bostick and Jamari Wheeler, and on two incoming freshmen, Myles Dread and Rasir Bolton.<\/p>\n

All four were expected to contribute next season, but they would have undoubtedly been able to slip into their roles more comfortably with junior \u00a0Tony Carr running the show from the point.<\/p>\n

With the roster as it stands today, Torvik Projects:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nMin% * ORTG * USAGE<\/strong><\/td>\n\n
\n
% of PSU Offense<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lamar Stevens<\/strong><\/td>\n23.2<\/td>\n21.98%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Watkins<\/strong><\/td>\n20.2<\/td>\n19.17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Josh Reaves<\/strong><\/td>\n15.5<\/td>\n14.69%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nazeer Bostick<\/strong><\/td>\n11.8<\/td>\n11.13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jamari Wheeler<\/strong><\/td>\n8.8<\/td>\n8.31%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Myles Dread<\/strong><\/td>\n7.9<\/td>\n7.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rasir Bolton<\/strong><\/td>\n6.0<\/td>\n5.68%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Harrar<\/strong><\/td>\n5.5<\/td>\n5.23%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Satchel Pierce<\/strong><\/td>\n4.1<\/td>\n3.85%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daniil Kasatkin<\/strong><\/td>\n2.6<\/td>\n2.46%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n105.6<\/td>\n100.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

That 2019 projection has Penn State at No. 37 nationally, a drop from its 2017-18 No. 18 finish.<\/p>\n

The good?:<\/p>\n

Penn State started the 2017-18 season projected at No. 49, so it climbed throughout the season to a higher position from an even lower spot.<\/p>\n

The bad?:<\/p>\n

Most “eyeballs” analysis of college basketball calls guard play especially important, and experienced Shep Garner and Tony Carr in the backcourt would seem to be a much better starting spot than starting with reserves Jamari Wheeler, Naz Bostick and two true freshmen.<\/p>\n

With Penn State reportedly active in the grad transfer market, the conventional wisdom would suggest that it should be prioritizing a guard.<\/p>\n

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Albany grad transfer Joe Cremo told ESPN that Chris Holtmann, Greg McDermott, Shaka Smart, Pat Chambers and Steve Wojciechowski will also be visiting him in Albany the next few days.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanESPN) April 5, 2018<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n