Question for an "eyeballs" person from a "stats" person re: David Jackson

[FanofPSU]

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post.  That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don't.  While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it.  The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn't it make more sense to go with the young guy?  Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don't see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That's what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach.  However, if I'm ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job.  He's not going to care about building the future right now.  If ED gets another year, I'm guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

[pmhewitt]

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post.  That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don't.  While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it.  The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn't it make more sense to go with the young guy?  Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don't see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That's what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach.  However, if I'm ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job.  He's not going to care about building the future right now.  If ED gets another year, I'm guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

The point is that the numbers don't show any real difference.  If 2 guys are giving you almost the exact same thing, why would going with the older ones give you more wins?

[FanofPSU]

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post.  That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don't.  While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it.  The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn't it make more sense to go with the young guy?  Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don't see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That's what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach.  However, if I'm ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job.  He's not going to care about building the future right now.  If ED gets another year, I'm guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

The point is that the numbers don't show any real difference.  If 2 guys are giving you almost the exact same thing, why would going with the older ones give you more wins?

Older guys protect the ball better and have better defense.  You see it in Edwards' plus/minus.   Older guys do things besides scoring which gives you a better chance of winning.

Its probably the same reason Frazier doesn't play as much as he should

[UncleLar]

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post.  That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don't.  While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it.  The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn't it make more sense to go with the young guy?  Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don't see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

There's plenty of minutes to go around.  I might agree with you if it were a question of playing them vs sitting on the bench but we're talking about guys in an eight man rotation - lots of minutes to be had.  Frazier and Edwards are averaging almost 20 mpg (19.7 and 18.9 to be exact).  Jones and Brooks are averaging about 23 (23.0 and 22.7 to be exact).  I don't see any need to suddenly bump Frazier and Edwards to 30 and reduced Jones and Brooks to 12.

[BobK]

Older guys protect the ball better and have better defense.  You see it in Edwards' plus/minus.   Older guys do things besides scoring which gives you a better chance of winning.

Its probably the same reason Frazier doesn't play as much as he should

That's definitely the case with Highberger on both counts...he has zero points in B10 play (0-7 shooting) but also zero TO's.  Frazier's still turning the ball over on nearly a quarter of his computed possessions, which is about twice as high as it should be for a guard.

[JakkL]

Jackson is a quiet glue type of guy.  He's not a starter on a good team.  He is too short (and plays short) to be effective inside.  He isn't adept at taking his man off of the dribble.  That leaves him with spot up jumpers.  Also, he disappears on O quite often by not trying to get himself open.  Sometimes that gets him wide open 3's which make you think he is better on O than he is.

I hadn't noticed his short armed no jumping rebound technique until someone else posted it last week.  I saw him do that several times on Saturday.  He also gave up a critical late game rebound because he turned his back to the hoop to box out which allowed his man to play the ball and get the rebound.

I'd really like to see him coming off of the bench as a 6th man.  Start Battle, Frazier, Babb, Edwards and Ott.  He should still get considerable minutes and as a 6th man he might help our bench scoring.  I do like his D and FT shooting especially late in games.

[UncleLar]

Jackson is a quiet glue type of guy.  He's not a starter on a good team.  He is too short (and plays short) to be effective inside.  He isn't adept at taking his man off of the dribble.  That leaves him with spot up jumpers.  Also, he disappears on O quite often by not trying to get himself open.  Sometimes that gets him wide open 3's which make you think he is better on O than he is.

I hadn't noticed his short armed no jumping rebound technique until someone else posted it last week.  I saw him do that several times on Saturday.  He also gave up a critical late game rebound because he turned his back to the hoop to box out which allowed his man to play the ball and get the rebound.

I'd really like to see him coming off of the bench as a 6th man.  Start Battle, Frazier, Babb, Edwards and Ott.  He should still get considerable minutes and as a 6th man he might help our bench scoring.  I do like his D and FT shooting especially late in games.

DJ's recent four game scoring "binge" has moved his season average up to 10.6 ppg.  I hope he keeps it there so we don't have to listen to that stat that says that PSU is the only team in the BCS conferences to have only one player average in double figures.  Next stat I want to see go by the wayside is Battle being the only player (or I think it's now one of two) to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals stat.  I'd like the big guys to take that as a personal affront (even if the stat is highly related to minutes played) and step up and catch Talor.

[JakkL]

The problem is where DJ is scoring his points (not counting FTs).  They are almost all set jumpers and most of the jumpers are 3 pointers.  DJ especially should be blasted for his lack of rebounding.  He plays the most minutes of any frontcourt player.  DJ should be our leading rebounder BY FAR.

Frontcourt +Battle rebounds per minute (B10 only):

PLAYER     R/G   M/G  R/M

Brooks      3.9   19.5   0.200

Edwards   3.9   19.6   0.199

Jones       4.2   21.6   0.194

Ott          2.5   15.5   0.161

DJ           4.7   32.9   0.144

Battle      4.8   38.5   0.125

[kidcoyote]

Jackson is a quiet glue type of guy.  He's not a starter on a good team.  He is too short (and plays short) to be effective inside.  He isn't adept at taking his man off of the dribble.  That leaves him with spot up jumpers.  Also, he disappears on O quite often by not trying to get himself open.  Sometimes that gets him wide open 3's which make you think he is better on O than he is.

I hadn't noticed his short armed no jumping rebound technique until someone else posted it last week.  I saw him do that several times on Saturday.  He also gave up a critical late game rebound because he turned his back to the hoop to box out which allowed his man to play the ball and get the rebound.

I'd really like to see him coming off of the bench as a 6th man.  Start Battle, Frazier, Babb, Edwards and Ott.  He should still get considerable minutes and as a 6th man he might help our bench scoring.  I do like his D and FT shooting especially late in games.

Agree on the short arms, and the starting lineup. Though on Jones/Ott, not sure. So much foul trouble there, probably doesn't matter.  Lots of our frontcourt doesn't jump for rebounds. Sort of wait for the ball to come down. Brooks jumped high for one vs. Minny, and Battle does it all the time, Babb too, but not the frontcourt. Nobody rips it off the glass.

Some on this board have said Battle gets rebounds because others are boxing out, but this, IMO, is a misunderstanding of boxing out. To me, boxing out is necessary because the defender is not watching the hoop, but facing away, while the offensive team is facing the hoop. Once the shot is up, the offense has an advantage of seeing where it's going to hit and bounce to, where the defense has the advantage of being closer, so they turn and box out to see the ball and maintain their closer position to the ball.  Once the defender sees where it's going, it's no longer necessary to box out, but to go for the ball. So, IMO, boxing out is temporary, to keep the inside position only long enough to see the ball and where it's going and beat your man to the ball. Battle never boxes out cause his man is often 20' from the basket, and he can easily turn and beat his man to the ball. Inside guys don't have that luxury.

[TomF]

No way I want DJ coming off the bench. He's our best defender in the front court.

[tundra]

I have seen  DJ  play up close at a HS basketball camp. He is NOT SHORT ARMED.  He IS long armed. But he is not explosive jumper. Thus he does not get "way up" for bounds.
Why are people beating up our 2nd best player?? 
WE ARE..........what we are. 

[Finding Forrester]

I have seen  DJ  play up close at a HS basketball camp. He is NOT SHORT ARMED.  He IS long armed. But he is not explosive jumper. Thus he does not get "way up" for bounds.
Why are people beating up our 2nd best player?? 
WE ARE..........what we are. 

DJ is a good basketball player.  He may not be the 6'9", 245 PF that we all want, but he plays smart and is productive.  I'll take him my team any day...although in an ideal world he may not be our second best player. 

[kidcoyote]

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post.  That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don't.  While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it.  The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn't it make more sense to go with the young guy?  Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don't see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That's what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach.  However, if I'm ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job.  He's not going to care about building the future right now.  If ED gets another year, I'm guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

The point is that the numbers don't show any real difference.  If 2 guys are giving you almost the exact same thing, why would going with the older ones give you more wins?

Older guys protect the ball better and have better defense.  You see it in Edwards' plus/minus.   Older guys do things besides scoring which gives you a better chance of winning.

Its probably the same reason Frazier doesn't play as much as he should

I'm with hewey on this. It's only 3 games, but when Battle and Frazier played together PSU scored more than Minny and Purdue during their time(and a lot less vs. Wisky). To me, it was particularly noticeable vs. Purdue, that Frazier and Battle combined could not be covered by Purdue. They were just too quick for PU guards. If you take Frazier out, and only have to worry about Battle's speed, it's easy for every team to do. Ed bragged pre-season that Frazier and Battle would be quickest backcourt in league. He's right. Let's see it.

There's one other thing. The season's dead, unless the team wins the BTT. Very unlikely, probably 1000-1, but with close losses to Mich, Wisky, Purdue, OSU, Minny and should have won games vs Iowa and IU, just maybe new guys can provide spark to win one or two remaining season games, and one or two in the tourney. Edwards makes a ton of errors, but he knows how to play, better, IMO than some guys getting more time. He doesnt' make any more errors than Brooks, and far fewer mental ones. Then there's Sasa....   There's no denying the fact that there is close to zero contribution in the post. We've played 11 conference games and still nothing. Why not try something else, like 4 guards as UM does? Can you do worse than close to zero?

Older guys do not protect the ball better. Worst 8 on assist/TO(conference only, like JakkL's stats) in ascending order are Jones, Ott, Brooks, Edwards, Jackson, Frazier and Battle(tied), Babb. Cam would be just before Babb, but not enough of either to consider.

[UncleLar]

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post.  That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don't.  While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it.  The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn't it make more sense to go with the young guy?  Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don't see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That's what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach.  However, if I'm ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job.  He's not going to care about building the future right now.  If ED gets another year, I'm guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

The point is that the numbers don't show any real difference.  If 2 guys are giving you almost the exact same thing, why would going with the older ones give you more wins?

Older guys protect the ball better and have better defense.  You see it in Edwards' plus/minus.   Older guys do things besides scoring which gives you a better chance of winning.

Its probably the same reason Frazier doesn't play as much as he should

I'm with hewey on this. It's only 3 games, but when Battle and Frazier played together PSU scored more than Minny and Purdue during their time(and a lot less vs. Wisky). To me, it was particularly noticeable vs. Purdue, that Frazier and Battle combined could not be covered by Purdue. They were just too quick for PU guards. If you take Frazier out, and only have to worry about Battle's speed, it's easy for every team to do. Ed bragged pre-season that Frazier and Battle would be quickest backcourt in league. He's right. Let's see it.

There's one other thing. The season's dead, unless the team wins the BTT. Very unlikely, probably 1000-1, but with close losses to Mich, Wisky, Purdue, OSU, Minny and should have won games vs Iowa and IU, just maybe new guys can provide spark to win one or two remaining season games, and one or two in the tourney. Edwards makes a ton of errors, but he knows how to play, better, IMO than some guys getting more time. He doesnt' make any more errors than Brooks, and far fewer mental ones. Then there's Sasa....  There's no denying the fact that there is close to zero contribution in the post. We've played 11 conference games and still nothing. Why not try something else, like 4 guards as UM does? Can you do worse than close to zero?

Older guys do not protect the ball better. Worst 8 on assist/TO(conference only, like JakkL's stats) in ascending order are Jones, Ott, Brooks, Edwards, Jackson, Frazier and Battle(tied), Babb. Cam would be just before Babb, but not enough of either to consider.

On a per minute basis, Edwards and Fraser turn the ball over more often than any of the other regulars.  If you are going to give those guys more minutes, they are probably going to turn the ball over at least a couple of times more than the other guys.  

Here's the guys TO numbers prorated to 40 minutes.

Code:

Bill Edwards....... 4.82
Tim Frazier........ 3.17
Talor Battle....... 2.56
Jeff Brooks........ 2.53
Andrew Jones....... 2.27
Andrew Ott......... 2.07
Cammeron Woodyard.. 1.36
Jackson, David (DJ) 1.29
Chris Babb......... 1.13

I think these numbers support the theory that you'll get the same scoring no matter who is in there, but with Edwards and Frazier getting the extra minutes you'll probably get more turnovers too.

[BobK]

Consolidating what a few people have already pointed to in different ways...

DJ is playing at the 4 but doesn't play like a true PF, and it shows in his shot selection.  FWIW, here's a B10-only comparison of PSU's 5 frontcourt players who are averaging >10 mpg, with Jamelle Cornley's and Travis Parker's junior seasons (full season, not just B10) thrown in for comparison since that's the eligibility year for most of these guys:

Player	PPP	OR%	DR%	%3PA	TO%	FTrate
David Jackson	1.24	10.7	8.6	29.3	11.7	43.9
Jeff Brooks	0.96	15.7	11.6	15.7	29.9	31.4
Andrew Jones	0.96	10.2	13.0	0.0	32.1	33.3
Bill Edwards	0.65	13.6	12.3	30.2	35.8	27.9
Andrew Ott	1.39	23.4	5.6	0.0	37.9	41.4
Jamelle Cornley	1.02	10.4	12.3	4.1	18.7	39.0
Travis Parker	1.07	7.9	9.2	21.3	21.3	36.0

PPP=Points per computed possession (i.e., scoring efficiency which accounts for the effective of offensive rebounds and turnovers)
OR%=Percentage of offensive rebounds gathered (basically, compute available OR's by multiplying total OR's by fraction of time on the floor and dividing individual OR count by this number)
DR%=Percentage of defensive rebounds gathered
%3PA=Percentage of shot attempts that were 3-pointers
TO%=Percentage of computed possessions that ended in turnovers
FTrate=Free throw attempts / field goal attempts

DJ's rebounding is close to the bottom, but not a huge drop-off (generally 1/3 fewer rebounds than the others, and surprisingly a better OR% than Jamelle and Travis when they were juniors).  But his shot selection definitely has a lot more 3's in it than Jones, Ott, and Cornley, which is consistent with his tendency to play more like a 3 in many ways.  However, the thing that gives DJ such value is that he takes care of the ball--his TO% is by far the lowest in the group, and is a fraction of that of the rest of PSU's frontcourt.  That's probably a big reason why he's grown into such a scoring option--he holds on to the ball when it's given to him.  He also gets to the FT line more than the other guys, which is also a big plus.

One piece of bad news in all of this is that Bill Edwards' game appears at this point to be very similar to DJ's, albeit with better rebounding numbers.  Edwards really needs to cut down on the TO's, but that is usually an area of significant improvement between the freshman and sophomore year.  But as far as a genuine post presence, unless Jones and Ott can get much better at holding on to the ball or a good JuCo can magically appear on the scene next fall, this is going to continue to be an issue next year.