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Messages - mjg

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1
Didn't the Marlins just hire a manager with ZERO managing experience?  If Chambers wants to promote everyone on his staff up a spot, I can accept that. 

2
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Today at 10:46 AM »
Jackson and Jrue Holiday were the trade for the rights to Noel and the 1st rounder the next year, Saric is what that became.

The second trade was correct, Jackson for Smith.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that initial trade.  You are correct.

3
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Today at 10:10 AM »
Pierre Jackson was used either in the Noel Trade or in the Saric trade.  He was then released by the team and the Sixers signed him the next summer and then released him.  He was traded first.

Not true.

New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers trade
New Orleans acquired draft rights to 47th pick Russ Smith
Philadelphia acquired draft rights to Pierre Jackson

4
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Today at 10:02 AM »
I would guess that may be part of the reason why Philly was able to accumulate so many 2nd round picks to begin with.

In general, I don't think picks outside the lottery are considered to be all that valuable.  About 1/3 of the non lottery picks and about half of the second round picks were traded.  There are other picks that were traded as well, but are protected this year (Philly has 3 of those).  I believe playoff teams are trying to add veterans to take that next step while non playoff teams are trying to accumulate draft picks to rebuild their rosters.  Looking at who has all of the traded picks seems to back that up.  Most are held by teams who were not in the playoffs, or just barely made the field (and probably didn't expect it).

5
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Today at 09:54 AM »
If I were Henke, I would try to trade some of the second round picks for higher picks.  In the end, there are only about 9 roster spots on an NBA team that play.  And picking six or seven 2nd round picks over a short period means that if you pick well, they might not get to play as there is no room.  Henke would be better off trying to have two second round picks per year and trade the other 2nd round picks to move up.  The NBA is not the NFL with very large rosters.

I disagree. It's about taking as many shots as they can at getting productive NBA players like Chandler Parsons. Plus 2nd round picks are very much team friendly contracts for the most part (KJ being one of the exceptions) because they can be given non-guaranteed money. It's also an easy way to get an international player under team control like we have in the past, see Vasilije Micic.

2nd Rounders are undervalued in the NBA because they are very team friendly deals and can allow a team to find diamonds in the rough. Trading them to get back into the first round for possible rotational guys is actually not the greatest thing to do unless there's someone they really value. First round picks are all on guaranteed contracts and have to go through team options and RFA.

Keep the 2nd rounders, do the best they can with them.

I agree with a good bit of this.  I prefer seeing European players taken in the second round, unless first round value falls to you.  This is mostly because you have them in your control, but can wait to see if they develop before signing them.  Drafting Americans usually means you have to develop them on your roster while paying them (Lou Williams sat pretty much his entire rookie year).  Then maybe losing them via free agency just as they begin to round into they player you hoped you were drafting. 

I also don't see the value in trading 2nd rounders to get into the first round before the draft.  If a guy you covet falls to a spot you can trade into, then go for it.  But don't trade up until you know what you are trading up to get.

6
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Yesterday at 03:15 PM »
I thought this conversation was centered around whether or not we could get any value with second round picks in this upcoming draft.  Now you are twisting it to whether or not the SIXERS got the BENEFIT of the values they found last year.  Those are two different conversations.  My point was that the Sixers found good value with those picks last year and therefore I'm hopeful they will find similar value this year.  Hopefully, the value they find sticks around this time.

I'm twisting it?

This is exactly what I said to start....

They have been whiffing on second rounders lately.

The Sixers have have a LOT of 2nd round picks lately, but I haven't seen much in the way of any production, or even having them stick around.

- Sixers have had 9(NINE) 2nd round picks in the past 3 season
   - 2014 - 5
   - 2013 - 2
   - 2012 - 2

NONE of the 4 picks from 2012 or 2013 are still with the program.

Of the 5 2nd round picks in 2014, only 2 (Jermani Grant and K. J. McDaniels) has played a single minute for the Sixers, and only Grant is currently with the team.

....that's 1 for 9 with their 2nd round picks.

I have been talking about BENEFIT from the beginning.

As I said earlier, "Was it a good pick when the Buccaneers signed Bo Jackson, even though Bo did not play for them?"   

It's like any other sport that has a draft, ...is it a good pick if they are talented, but they are not playing for you?  I don't consider that situation as a "good pick".


Okay, I see your point.  I was looking at your first sentence (they've been whiffing...) and had a different interpretation of what that means.  To me a whiff is picking someone that stinks and never makes the NBA at all, not picking someone good who you trade away for zero return.

7
Penn State Basketball / Re: Recruiting
« on: Yesterday at 03:07 PM »
He was offered early. Clearly they believe in Nazeer.

Yup. I'm tired of people stating, or implying, that the only reason Bostick was recruited was to help land Carr and Stevens. It's both wrong and an insult to Bostick.

Right.  And if you look at the composite ratings of Bostick and Stevens, they are practically identical.  I have no idea what that means other than the average of a bunch of so called experts puts the two players at the same level.  Bostick has only impressed me since his commitment.  I'd love to see Carr in this class too.  But I wouldn't complain if the other three ended up being Moore, Hunter and Painter.  That's still a really nice class in my opinion.

8
I'd start Geno over Reaves in that lineup.  If lineup 1 is the starting lineup for the B1G season, it could be an exciting year.  That tells me our freshman class is ahead of my schedule (Watkins in particular).

It would certainly be promising for the future, but it's still probably not going to lead to more wins. League will be tougher next year, especially inside. Not saying that's what you implied, we just know there are others on this board ready to pounce about how delusional it is to expect a true freshman big man to start in the Big Ten.

All I know is the coaching staff isn't doing themselves any favors in recruiting if one of their main pitches - immediate playing time - doesn't come to fruition for Reaves/Watkins when we're still undoubtedly towards the bottom of the league next year. Both of those guys are going to log major minutes from day one.

If freshman are forcing upperclassmen to the bench, that usually spells good things for the future.  That's exciting regardless of the immediate impact on our record.  That's what I was implying. 

9
Or you can just flip-flop Reaves/Geno.
Lineup 1
PG Garner
SG Reaves
SF Taylor
PF Watkins
C Dickerson

Lineup 2
PG Foster
SG Thorpe
SF Banks/Zemgulis
PF Jack
C Moore

Thorpe comes off the bench as 6th man.  We weren't very good last year and lost a potential NBA player, so why not pencil in a couple new guys.

Have no idea what to think about Washington, but if Zemgulis can knock down the 3 like he did in that video he might also see the floor.

I think your lineup #1 here is Pat's ideal lineup for the Big Ten season - if Reaves/Watkins are ready for that at that point. Geno would log just as many minutes off the bench, too. Or you can just flip-flop Reaves/Geno.

I don't think we'll see much of Jack this year, unless he's needed due to foul trouble or he unexpectedly gains 25 pounds.

I'd start Geno over Reaves in that lineup.  If lineup 1 is the starting lineup for the B1G season, it could be an exciting year.  That tells me our freshman class is ahead of my schedule (Watkins in particular).

10
OT / Re: OT - Urschel
« on: Yesterday at 01:41 PM »
I think it's a ridiculous rule.

What should be done is to make the uprights more narrow.

There is too much FG kicking and not enough looking the end zone in my opinion.  With the kickers today, any FG inside of 40 years is almost a gimme, and with college kids kicking 50+ yd FGs, it all becomes too easy.  I think they should be looking to increase the difficulty across the board for all kicking, and have the uprights slightly more narrow may bring us to a FG% that is not so much of a done deal.

Combine the extra point with the kickoff.  Narrow the uprights and kick it from the 50, from a hold, not a tee.  If it goes through the uprights, two points and receiving team gets the ball at the 40.  If it misses but goes out of endzone (or receiving team chooses to not return the kick), one point and receiving team gets the ball at the 25.  If it goes out of bounds, no points and the receiving team gets the ball at the 10.  A returned kick is no points and ball where returner is tackled.  Put more strategy into it, but keep play moving.

11
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Yesterday at 01:33 PM »
They did a lot more than just get Grant with 9 picks. Some were traded for future picks.  We have a player in Australia stashed.

I believe the power forward from Turkey, not Saric, who played with the team this year was either our 2nd rounder or part of a deal with one.

We also used a second rounder in the trade for Saric last year when we swapped picks. 

If you are looking at the value, you can't just look at who is still on the roster.  There is a transaction tree to look at.  Getting your first rounders to be starters is not a guarantee.  So getting value in the second round is great.  As far as selling them for cash.  No fan cares what the owners wallets look like.  Just progression to an exciting winning team.

We gained a second in the Saric trade (and two firsts counting the pick to get Saric), we didn't give one up.

Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers trade[6]
Orlando acquired draft rights to 10th pick Elfrid Payton
Philadelphia 76ers acquired draft rights to 12th pick Dario Šarić, a 2015 second-round pick and a future first-round pick

Jordan McRae is the guy in Australia I think.  Not sure who you are talking about in Turkey.  We drafted two Serbian players and traded one to San Antonio.  Perhaps the other guy (Vasilije Micić) is who you mean?? 

12
Penn State Basketball / Re: Recruiting
« on: Yesterday at 12:37 PM »

http://pennstate.247sports.com/Bolt/Chambers-Lions-shopping-in-bulk-37379367#


Quote from: Coach Chambers
"But I also think it's really important to recruit the kids as individuals. And know that we might not get those other kids, but we're gonna take this kid. And I'm damn happy about that."


I don't think he cares for the Nazeer Bostick haters.


Interesting point. 

13
OT / Re: OT - Urschel
« on: Yesterday at 11:39 AM »
Urschel chimes in on the new  33 yd PAT  in the NFL

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/


He shows the probability of a 33 yard FG, but doesn't account for the XP being dead center between the hash marks and not to either side.  I'm guessing that the dead center 33 yard FG has a higher success rate than those from either hash mark.


I'd say it's pretty negligible.  The hash marks in the NFL are aligned with the goal posts so you don't really get a bad angle on field goals like you might in college.


You are probably correct, but teams will still often give up a yard or two in order to get the ball centered for the last second kick.  They must find it at least a little bit important, if only psychologically.

14
OT / Re: OT - Urschel
« on: Yesterday at 11:38 AM »
Urschel chimes in on the new  33 yd PAT  in the NFL

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/


He shows the probability of a 33 yard FG, but doesn't account for the XP being dead center between the hash marks and not to either side.  I'm guessing that the dead center 33 yard FG has a higher success rate than those from either hash mark.


Another factor that I don't think is accounted for is that if the offense lines up to kick an extra point from the 15, the defense knows with certainty that the offense is kicking (i.e., it's not a fake), and can therefore sell out to try to block the kick - which is something that makes the new rule unique, and presumably, will make the new extra point more risky.


I'm pretty sure the defense won't change anything, at least not much.  Still have to account for a fake or the receiver can walk into the endzone. 


Are you still able to fake from the 15?  If so, you're right, but I thought the options were binary - kick from the 15 or run/pass from the 2.


I think you still have to be able to do something with a bobbled hold.  Can't imagine that would be the end.  Or maybe scoring from there is only worth 1 point regardless.  I haven't seen the complete rule laid out yet.

15
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Yesterday at 11:36 AM »
....that's 1 for 9 with their 2nd round picks.

What's the baseline to compare that against? (How do second rounders fare overall?)

Two picks played a lot. One got traded. I'd call it 2 not 1.

One was traded for a player that will not be on the team next year.  That pick is not on the team, and the player he was traded for will not be on the team next year either.  I don't see where it improved the team, or where they obtained a player that will contribute to future success, so i would still call it 1 for 9

Just because we traded the guy for nothing doesn't make the pick itself a failure. The pick was a success. The trade was the failure.

They HAD to trade him.  Is it a good pick if you pick a player that is a good player but will not play for your team?

Do you know the back story on McDaniels?  He didn't want to play for the Sixers, and was NOT going to resign with them.  The Sixers HAD TO trade him for nothing.

Was it a good pick when the Buccaneers signed Bo Jackson, even though Bo did not play for them?

I thought this conversation was centered around whether or not we could get any value with second round picks in this upcoming draft.  Now you are twisting it to whether or not the SIXERS got the BENEFIT of the values they found last year.  Those are two different conversations.  My point was that the Sixers found good value with those picks last year and therefore I'm hopeful they will find similar value this year.  Hopefully, the value they find sticks around this time.

16
OT / Re: OT - Urschel
« on: Yesterday at 10:43 AM »
Urschel chimes in on the new  33 yd PAT  in the NFL

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/


He shows the probability of a 33 yard FG, but doesn't account for the XP being dead center between the hash marks and not to either side.  I'm guessing that the dead center 33 yard FG has a higher success rate than those from either hash mark.


Another factor that I don't think is accounted for is that if the offense lines up to kick an extra point from the 15, the defense knows with certainty that the offense is kicking (i.e., it's not a fake), and can therefore sell out to try to block the kick - which is something that makes the new rule unique, and presumably, will make the new extra point more risky.


I'm pretty sure the defense won't change anything, at least not much.  Still have to account for a fake or the receiver can walk into the endzone. 

17
OT / Re: OT - Urschel
« on: Yesterday at 10:22 AM »
Does the PAT have to be placed dead center, or can the kicking team select. I know that some kickers prefer off center placements depending on the distance.

I'm not sure in the NFL.  I know in college I've seen teams move the ball to either hash mark for 2 point conversion attempts.  But I don't recall ever seeing that in the NFL.

18
OT / Re: OT - Urschel
« on: Yesterday at 09:16 AM »
Urschel chimes in on the new  33 yd PAT  in the NFL

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/


He shows the probability of a 33 yard FG, but doesn't account for the XP being dead center between the hash marks and not to either side.  I'm guessing that the dead center 33 yard FG has a higher success rate than those from either hash mark.

19
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: May 20, 2015, 09:48 PM »
....that's 1 for 9 with their 2nd round picks.

What's the baseline to compare that against? (How do second rounders fare overall?)

Two picks played a lot. One got traded. I'd call it 2 not 1.

One was traded for a player that will not be on the team next year.  That pick is not on the team, and the player he was traded for will not be on the team next year either.  I don't see where it improved the team, or where they obtained a player that will contribute to future success, so i would still call it 1 for 9

Just because we traded the guy for nothing doesn't make the pick itself a failure. The pick was a success. The trade was the failure.

20
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: May 20, 2015, 07:25 PM »
....that's 1 for 9 with their 2nd round picks.

What's the baseline to compare that against? (How do second rounders fare overall?)

Two picks played a lot. One got traded. I'd call it 2 not 1.

21
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: May 20, 2015, 02:03 PM »

I remember the year that the Chicago Bulls were in their prime, and had 3 1st round picks in the same draft.  If memory serves, it was the year they drafted BJ King (?), the PG that won a few Championships with the team during the second Three-Peat.  I could be off on that, because I have been know to be wrong on many occasions.   :-[

You are combining BJ Armstrong and Stacy King into one person.  King was a center, Armstrong was the guard that you are thinking of.  King was a role player, never living up to his #6 pick, Armstong turned out to be a good pick at #18, the third guy was forward Jeff Saunders at #20, who never became anything.   

I don't think Armstrong was part of the second three peat.  Pretty sure he was gone after the third title.

22
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: May 20, 2015, 01:47 PM »
I remember the year that the Chicago Bulls were in their prime, and had 3 1st round picks in the same draft.

The third pick was Jeff Sanders, PF/C from Georgia Southern.

I like taking foreign guys in the second round.  You get to keep their rights for a while.  And sometimes they actually become a valuable commodity.  Regardless, they can still be traded well after the draft.  So no hurry on those.

23
Penn State Basketball / Re: Welcome to campus Josh Reaves
« on: May 20, 2015, 01:18 PM »
I can't see how we're any better than last year

I can't see it, either.

The future is all about this recruiting class. We will suffer through "Chambers sucks" when we have a similar record to this year, but those in the know will be able to assess the future by mid November. Barring a team mutiny, Barbour seems like she will see it that way, too.

This is not to say that I don't like the current 2015-16 core. Just think we are in for a learning period this upcoming season.

I'm with the two of you.  I don't believe we will be better.  I think it is possible, but not likely.  The one thing I did notice last year though was that toward the end of games, DJ seemed to try to take over and do things 1 on 5.  I felt like we had played 35 minutes as a team, were in the lead, why change.  Perhaps playing 40 minutes as a team will yield better results.  I have my doubts, but that's really the only way I can see it (unless the freshmen are all better than advertised).

24
Penn State Basketball / Re: Re: Welcome to campus Josh Reaves
« on: May 20, 2015, 09:37 AM »
1 Foster Shep IW(?)
2 Shep Geno Reaves IW
3 Brandon Payton Donovon DZ
4 Julian Brandon Donovon Watkins
5 JD Julian Watkins

So ... Foster, Shep, Brandon, Julian and JD to start, a lot of firepower in the rotation, a lot of options for lineups. Will be very hard to keep Geno (obviously) and Reaves and Watkins off the floor so they will see a ton of minutes regardless of who starts, but I like Shep at 2 with him and Brandon getting enough space to shoot to start to make up for loss of DJ's efficiency and production. DZ a wild card (possible redshirt with a log jam at 2/3).

wait, you think Geno isn't starting?  Is he this years Jermaine Marshall?  I didn't get the memo.

I don't know who starts.  I could see it being Foster, Shep, Geno, Taylor, Dickerson.  But that's a very short backcourt.  I could see Shep, Geno, Reaves, Taylor, Dickerson.  I could see several other combinations as well and won't list them all.  I think it will fluctuate throughout the year.  PC has switched around his starting lineup in the past and I don't see any reason why he wouldn't do that again this year. 

I do like the idea of Shep, Geno and Reaves starting together along with Taylor and Dickerson.  If Reaves is the defender he appears to be in his HS video, he along with Geno and Dickerson can set the tone on defense early.  On offense, hopefully Shep and Taylor start out hot and we can play with a lead instead of always playing from behind.

25
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: May 20, 2015, 09:03 AM »
Very happy with the Lottery results.

So am I, other than wishing we had gotten the 6th pick as well.  I think picking 3rd might work out best for us.  I'm assuming Towns and Okafor go with the first two picks and we get Russell.  If we had gotten #1 or #2, Hinkie might have taken another big and tried to make a trade.  Granted, it's a risk, but what if Russell turns into a generational type of player?  You don't get those in trades very often.  I like Noel.  If Embiid is healthy, I think he'll make Noel even better.  All they need is someone who can get the ball where it needs to go. 

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