Obviously, it depends on the circumstances and whether PC has the opportunity, maybe players get hurt. Too many unknown variables come into play to make a sweeping statement like "if he's not winning in the next 2 years he's out."
Of course you have to win games, but if there is very little to no talent on the floor to win games, how are you supposed to do it?
Every new head coach taking over a program like PSU has to face similar issues. Some of them manage to overcome the issues and take the program up a level or two. Most don't. May be TJB is right - it's probably something dirty the coach is doing or just pure luck.
My point is that if the coach is not winning, things are not going to magically get better in the 4th year or later. Continuing on the same path while the hole gets deeper is not good for anyone.
If nothing else, changing the coach metaphorically resets the narrative surrounding the program. Instead of everyone saying that PSU has not been relevant for the last 6-8 years and that the administration & fans don't care, there will be some excitement about the future.
So you have gone from saying that Pat needs to start winning in the next two years to saying that "things are not going to magically get better in the 4th year." Make up your mind.
No, things don't get magically better, they do from hard work on the recruiting trail and hard work from the student athletes. Our recruiting is getting better and we are hitting Philadelphia hard, a major recruiting area and it's not like our student athletes have not been working hard, they just haven't been as good as we need them to be.
PC had very little opportunity to win games his first two seasons, this one is going to be interesting because we get back our best player (but he's coming off an Achilles injury), lost our 2nd best scorer and still a lot of unknown variables down low. Our guard play should be improving with Frazier, Newbill, Johnson, Woodward, Thorpe. However, Johnson can't play until after finals and Woodward/Thorpe are freshman. Frazier and Newbill have hardly had any time to play together either. Let's also not forget that our team down low is still very sketchy given that we lack a true rim protector, quality defender and rebounder, or quality scorer on the block. I expect this season will be better since Travis is growing into his third season, Frazier is back, Newbill had a year to learn the ropes in the B10 and Taylor showed some promise, maybe Jack will be ready to contribute, however, it's hardly going to be a groundbreaking season where we rush up to 20 wins and make the NCAA tournament, at least that's how I feel now.
So then comes the 2014 season, if we can land one of Larrier or Bridges to go along with Washington and Garner, this will be another quality recruiting class and will see our recruiting gradually improving. They will all be freshman so it will be hard to gauge their contribution or consider how long they'd play. However, we would finally start to have the building blocks for a quality program, an outside chance at the NCAA, I'm thinking if we can land one of those top 100 recruits we'd likely end up around 16-18 wins given the maturation of other players, Newbill in his final year, Taylor should be better, Travis would be a senior, Jack should be contributing, Moore another year wiser as a big, Dickerson will have been around the program for a year, Thorpe, Woodward and Banks all would've had a year in the program + a quality freshman class. The momentum would start to be there to start becoming a middle of the pack B10 team with potential to rise further if we can continue to get the right players.
Things are not so cut and dry in sports as "if he's not winning he's not good enough." The whole situation has to be evaluated, PC has had very little opportunity to win in his first two seasons and this one is likely to be better but on the whole probably not as good as you want it to be. But if we can add some more quality recruits and perhaps a Larrier or Bridges for the early signing period then the momentum is there (even if we end 15-15 this year for example), it would be utterly mystifying to pull the plug then, even if the results still hadn't been the greatest.
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