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Messages - rwd5035

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1
Penn State Basketball / Re: Dartmouth IGT
« on: Today at 05:52 PM »
Can't believe we lost the 2nd half. We're going 0-18 in B1G play.

2
Penn State Basketball / Re: Dartmouth IGT
« on: Today at 04:59 PM »
http://www.btn2go.com/video/broadcastdartmouth-at-penn-st-on-december-22-2014

This inexplicably is providing a free, non-pirated, stream of the game. Enjoy!
Nice to also have the PSU radio broadcast team.  Jerardi really knows this game.



I actually think this is more annoying. Not that Dick and Steve aren't good at their jobs, it's that the radio stream is free. Could at least provide us some graphics of a score and a TV announce team.

3
Penn State Basketball / Re: Dartmouth IGT
« on: Today at 04:45 PM »
41-16 at the half. Pretty comfortable, pretty good.

4
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: Today at 10:50 AM »
I'd expect any top 100 team in the country to be in roughly the same place.  If you didn't think this team was a top 100 squad, then I can see how you're content right now.

But how wouldn't you be content? If you'd expect any top 100 team to be in this place, and the team is in this place, then why wouldn't you be content?

5
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: Today at 12:21 AM »
Why are people going after the stats? Larry's not even saying anything negative. He's just providing statistical measures. Fully understanding the RPI impact of losing that Charlotte game could end up being very important for our team trying an NCAA bid. No one is suggesting to go to the team and hold up a chart saying, guys you only have a < 1% chance of 10 conference wins. That doesn't happen and no one is suggesting that.

Though, I thought KenPom predicted us as a 6-12 team before the OOC started (I know RPIForecast had us at 5-13, not sure if they do now).

6
OT / Re: Sixers draft
« on: Yesterday at 10:22 PM »
The Sixers won their 3rd today in Orlando 96-88.

They ended up getting a 2nd round pick for Alexey Shved somehow, Hinkie sure knows how to get draft picks. They now have 20 picks over the next five drafts.

7
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: Yesterday at 09:41 PM »
Yo, getting defensive about stats. That's some real blinder.

8
Penn State Basketball / Re: Upsets Everywhere: 14-15 Edition
« on: Yesterday at 08:29 PM »
Not sure if this is really an upset but N. Iowa beat Iowa by 12 yesterday.

It's not. UNI is a legitimate squad this year.

9
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: Yesterday at 03:08 PM »
Where is the growth you're all talking about that is supposed to come from notching wins up against inferior opponents?  I don't think that theory is panning out right now. 

We won't know until we get to B1G play.

10
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: Yesterday at 03:07 PM »
I think it's pretty cool how much the team loves Banks. I didn't realize he did the handshakes and participated in the pre-game intros. Played well. Think he can be very useful and if we can go legitimately 10 deep that's a good thing.

11
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: Yesterday at 01:37 PM »
Not sure if you've noticed but my tone has changed after seeing other B1G schools not win all their "gimmes" while we did + have a solid win over a good GW squad.

12
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:41 PM »
In a clearly down Big Ten

By what measure? It's the 3rd best conference in America according to KenPom. That's "clearly down"?

After 4 straight years of being the best conference at KP ratings of: .8527, .8263, .8459, and .8115... we're 3rd this year, with a rating of .7961.

So yeah, i'd call it a down year.  Call me crazy.

1st-3rd is really going to be a huge difference in the committee's eyes if we are up for selection obviously. Let's not act like the B1G sucks.

I wouldn't call the 3rd best conference in America "clearly down".

Not saying it sucks.  I'm suggesting that 9 wins in the conference could come against a selection of teams that don't really impress anybody on selection sunday.

I just don't really like when someone speaks in these absolutes like, 'we're a lock if we do this or that'... 9-9 probably gets us in the conversation, but look at the proposed resume I put together... does that really sound like a tournament team based on how those teams look today?

Yea the resume would be so bad the NIT may not even take us.

Wins at Illinois and Indiana would be good wins, so would beating Purdue and Maryland at home. If it gets our RPI below 40 it's a lock. I don't know why you are choosing this hill to die on.

Odds are likely this won't even be a consideration anyway.

13
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:35 PM »
I get the POV that says, 'well we came out on top when we didn't play so well so let's just be happy and hope that the bad play is behind us'... but isn't it a lot more likely after 12 games of very meh performances that we just aren't very good and eventually the luck will run out?

If we beat Dartmouth, that would have us at 12-1 going into the B1G schedule. If this was offered to you before the season, what would you have said?

You can go back and check, I'm pretty sure I suggested that's the minimum of what we should achieve.  Of course I was also operating under the assumption that we'd win our first game in Charleston and have a few tougher games on the schedule.

SOS 299 so far, just updated on KP.

So then you should be happy, yes? If we achieve your minimum expectation 12-1 and are 12-1, I don't know how you have much room for complaining.

14
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:33 PM »
In a clearly down Big Ten

By what measure? It's the 3rd best conference in America according to KenPom. That's "clearly down"?

After 4 straight years of being the best conference at KP ratings of: .8527, .8263, .8459, and .8115... we're 3rd this year, with a rating of .7961.

So yeah, i'd call it a down year.  Call me crazy.

1st-3rd is really going to be a huge difference in the committee's eyes if we are up for selection obviously. Let's not act like the B1G sucks.

I wouldn't call the 3rd best conference in America "clearly down".

15
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:26 PM »
I get the POV that says, 'well we came out on top when we didn't play so well so let's just be happy and hope that the bad play is behind us'... but isn't it a lot more likely after 12 games of very meh performances that we just aren't very good and eventually the luck will run out?

If we beat Dartmouth, that would have us at 12-1 going into the B1G schedule. If this was offered to you before the season, what would you have said?

16
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:23 PM »
In a clearly down Big Ten

By what measure? It's the 3rd best conference in America according to KenPom. That's "clearly down"?

17
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:22 PM »
I can get us to 9 wins in league with home wins against (current KP rank): Michigan (77), Purdue (46), Rutgers (163), Nebraska (83), Maryland (29)
& road wins against: Rutgers (163), Indiana (50), Illinois (43), Northwestern (156)

Add those 'stellar' wins to our GW (66) one and you've got a team that the NIT wouldn't even be excited to have.  Unless some of these teams here really turn it on. 

NIT wouldn't be excited to have a 21 win B1G team? ::)

18
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 05:21 PM »
If we played stiffer competition I would agree that all is well but we haven't.  We play sloppy like we have in most of these OOC games and we won't win enough games in the Big Ten.  Remember our margin for error is very slim with such a poor strength of schedule to make the NCAA's.

No, it's not. 9-9 will be a lock for Penn State in the NCAAs, assuming they beat Dartmouth.

How ya figure?  RPI forecast puts us at 55 RPI with that record.  Hardly lock status.  In fact "squarely on the bubble" is far more appropriate, and depending on who those 9 wins came against in conference, our resume could be incredibly weak given the relatively down year in the league.


RPI Wizard puts us at 35 with that record. That is lock city.

19
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 04:47 PM »
Yep, it's like an 11-1 pitcher who has a 4.80 ERA.

Interesting analogy but I don't know how you come to the conclusion of a near 5 ERA.

20
Penn State Basketball / Re: vs Drexel IGT
« on: December 20, 2014, 04:46 PM »
Was at the game, seemed completely done and dusted when we were up 58-38. Really confused why we weren't ready for the press after Drexel's timeout though. Then, we just casually played the rest of the game in 2nd gear. That Drexel team was really bad but we were basically in total control until we took our foot completely off the gas. If we could remain focused we'd be a really good team, instead of just a good one.

Sat near Shep's mom and she's a total riot. Always dancing, shouting, she really loves watching her son play and is always cheering on the rest of the team.

Let's not kid ourselves, if we were a pitcher in baseball you'd KNOW we were due to get shelled here any second because our stats don't match up with our W/L whatsoever.

I find this to be a very odd stance to take. Basically, you are waiting for us to get killed by someone before you can say "AHA!" I just hope you choose to not do it if we get beaten soundly by Wisconsin.

We looked good against a decent GW team (who may not prove to be as good as we hoped), and today we seemed good for about 30 minutes before the wheels started falling off.  Other than that, what have we done this year that has you saying 'all is well' ?

Here are some other B1G team's results this season:

North Florida def. Purdue 73-70
Eastern Washington def. Indiana 88-86
NJIT def. Michigan 72-70
Eastern Michigan def. Michigan 45-42
Incarnate Word def. Nebraska 73-72
Saint Peter's def. Rutgers 68-50
St. Francis (PA) def. Rutgers today.

Basically, we are a middle of the pack B1G team in terms of avoiding bad losses. If you look at the top 7 KenPom teams, none of them really have a horrible loss on their schedule (bar maybe Northwestern but they are a bad team). This is a good thing.

I don't know why avoiding upsets isn't a positive for you though. Given how many times in past years we've stubbed our toes against bad teams, to avoid it so far this year is refreshing. Maybe not "all is well" but the sky is hardly falling either. The team could perform better, but they also could not be 11-1. Think you have to take the good with the bad.

This is a good team that may not go to the NCAA Tournament but it's pretty cool that the program finally has some momentum in the right direction.

21
Penn State Basketball / Re: Upsets Everywhere: 14-15 Edition
« on: December 20, 2014, 04:30 PM »
St. Francis completes the season sweep of Rutgers, as St. Francis (PA) takes them out at the RAC 73-68.  St. Francis (NY) beat them at the RAC a few weeks ago too...

Wasn't that Saint Peters?

22
Penn State Basketball / Re: Upsets Everywhere: 14-15 Edition
« on: December 20, 2014, 09:14 AM »
EKU shot 54% from 3 on 26 attempts.

23
Penn State Basketball / Re: Upsets Everywhere: 14-15 Edition
« on: December 20, 2014, 08:04 AM »
Miami fell almost 50(!!) places in KenPom after this loss. Went from 23 to 70.
Eastern Kentucky rose over 70(!) places in KenPom. Went from 163 to 90.

24
Penn State Basketball / Re: 2014/15 OOC Opponent Tracker
« on: December 17, 2014, 07:19 AM »
Is Drexel in danger of falling in the 250+ category?

EDIT - They don't appear to be but it's not out of the question.

25
Penn State Basketball / Re: 2014-2015 Postseason Discussion Thread
« on: December 16, 2014, 08:03 PM »
PSU goes the rest of the season undefeated.  Wins the big ten tourney for a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney.  Beats Duke in the regional final, Arizona in the final four, only to lose a heartbreaker to Kentucky in an epic triple OT final where Newbill goes off for 58 points but misses a contested 3 pointer for the win while being triple teamed because PSU only has 3 players on the floor for the last minute of OT because of everybody else fouling out. 

And we complain. ;)

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